Leveraging Billions: The Hedge Funds Betting Big on U.S. Treasuries

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These traders, part of an exclusive group of around ten firms, engage in the basis trade with an exceptional degree of leverage, often borrowing up to 50 times their own investment. This approach allows them to inject billions into the market, amplifying returns and making them central figures in the Treasury market. The scale of their operations is so vast that it has drawn regulatory scrutiny, with concerns about the potential for market disruption similar to what was witnessed in March 2020.

Market Overview:
-A small group of hedge funds wields immense power in a giant “basis trade” on US Treasuries.
-They exploit tiny price gaps, fueled by billions borrowed from banks, generating staggering profits but raising alarm about potential financial instability.
J-onathan Hoffman (ExodusPoint), John Bonello (Millennium), and Jonathan Tipermas (Citadel) lead the pack, wielding leverage and secrecy to supercharge returns.

Key Points:
-Leveraged Gamble: These hedge funds borrow heavily (often 50x their investment) to amplify returns, making them crucial players in the $26 trillion Treasury market.
-Profit Powerhouse: The trade has been lucrative, netting billions for firms like Millennium and ExodusPoint.
-Regulatory Jitters: The 2020 market meltdown, when the trade nearly imploded, exposed its potential dangers, prompting new SEC rules to curb leverage.
-Central Clearing Conundrum: New clearinghouse requirements in 2026 may dampen the trade’s appeal but could also impact Treasury market liquidity.

Looking Ahead:
-Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: ensure financial stability without disrupting the vital Treasury market.
-Some argue the hedge funds provide crucial market liquidity, while others warn of their “too-big-to-fail” risk.
-The battle for control of the basis trade, and its wider implications for financial stability, is far from over.

The basis trade, although immensely profitable for these hedge funds, poses significant risks, especially when the market is turbulent. In 2020, these traders faced massive losses as the market fluctuated, only to recover thanks to Federal Reserve interventions. Regulators, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, are now closely monitoring these activities, implementing new rules to reduce the attractiveness of such trades due to the risks associated with excessive financial leverage.

The future of the basis trade and its prominent players is uncertain, especially with regulatory changes on the horizon. These new rules aim to balance the necessity of maintaining a liquid and efficient Treasury market with the dangers of overreliance on a few major hedge funds. As the market evolves, the impact of these traders and the

This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative