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UBS’ data tracking iPhone availability in 30 countries reveals that wait times for high-end models have shortened in most regions in recent weeks. However, in China, wait times for the Pro model have increased by about 4 days to approximately 23 days.
Wait times for the Pro model have decreased by about 1 day in the U.S., 2 days in Europe, and 6 days in Japan since the last check. Similarly, for the Pro Max, wait times have reduced by approximately 2 days in the U.S. and China, 5 days in Europe, and 6 days in Japan.
In comparison to the previous year, wait times for the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max models in the US and China are longer than for the 14 Pro and Pro Max models.
“The elevated wait times for the high-end segment are now essentially flattish YoY both in Europe and Japan, a risk as these two geographies had demonstrated some strength in demand. As a result, with the US and China tracking below last year’s models and any potential upside in Europe now relatively muted, we think that any upside to our estimates in the segment is limited,” the analysts added.
Given that the high-end segment accounts for 63% of total iPhone 15 procurement and with demand showing signs of softening, the analysts see a risk to their 49 million iPhone projection for the September quarter.
On the other hand, demand for the iPhone15 Base/Plus is “showing some resilience globally.”
UBS has a Neutral rating and a $190 per share price target on AAPL stock.
