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The analysts said in a note that they are “taking a break from travel,” with margins having reached a near-term peak and revenue growth potentially decelerating.
“Our call is that leisure travel has experienced a material recovery from 2021-2023E, resulting in outsized margin expansion. As these tailwinds fade, we see elevated risk to RNE and ADR growth,” they explained.
“We believe ADR risk is more elevated today. Airbnb has experienced a prolonged period of ADR strength, which we characterize as from delayed recoveries across regions and in urban markets. With consumer spend on services materially outpacing goods, we expect a reversion is more likely than not,” they added.
Commenting on the room night expectations (RNE) being too high, the analysts said they believe this risk begins in 4Q. In addition, they note that restrictions in New York City — a popular New Year’s Eve destination — “could accentuate q/q declines.”
“Net, we believe it is more likely that Airbnb posts decelerating RNE growth into year-end, which makes Street forecasts for 14% annual growth through 2025 too aggressive,” the analysts said.
