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They explained that the equity story is changing from the disruptions in Asia to Estée Lauder’s prolonged US underperformance.
“The fundamentals of the portfolio are intact, but investment on many fronts is needed to deliver. A protracted earnings downgrade cycle is waning,” the analysts wrote.
However, they acknowledged that the risk to medium-term profitability prevents further bullishness.
“China and Korea have been the source of earnings disappointments. However, with a recovery on the mainland underway and an end to the travel retail destocking in sight, the company is set to enjoy a strong technical benefit as its customers return to more normal ordering patterns. This should support a recovery to organic sales growth of 8% in FY24 and 10% in FY25,” the analysts added.
“Our brand work reassures us that the portfolio, enhanced by recent acquisitions, can sustain 6-7% pa organic sales growth over the medium-term, even with only a modest improvement in the US.”
EL shares are up over 1% premarket.
