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The S&P 500 gained about 16% in the first half of 2019, making it the best first half of the year since 2019.
Tech stocks have continued to rally with the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) closing 2.2% higher on the back of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) market cap topping the $3 trillion threshold.
Finally, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 2% as the test of the 34500 resistance continues. Still, DJI trades less than 7% off its record high.
Overall, a set of better-than-expected economic releases continues to fuel the year-to-date rally in stocks and a view that recession is avoidable. This is despite Fed officials’ warnings that the central bank is not done raising rates.
For this week, the key economic data releases are the ISM manufacturing report on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. Moreover, the Fed meeting minutes are out on Wednesday while Fed presidents Williams and Logan are also scheduled to speak this week.
What analysts are saying about US stocks
Berengerg analysts: “The US market appears more stretched on both a relative strength index (RSI) and market breadth basis, and supports our preference for the UK over the US.”
BofA analysts: “2023 YTD has not lived up to investors’ bearish expectations. The S&P 500 (SPX) scored a 15.9% return for 1H 2023, which is the 12th best 1H of the year going back to 1928 and well above the average 1H SPX return of 3.6% (4.9% median). This is potentially bad news for the bears: The SPX tends to continue its winning ways in 2H after a solid 1H.”
JPMorgan analysts: “The market needs to resolve a basic disconnect: how will the Fed pivot if there is no pain? Current expectations of a soft landing, without deterioration in profits, labor, or credit, but at the same time the consensus belief that inflation will keep coming down and that central banks are largely done with tightening, needs to get addressed. We believe that the consensus view that the worst of pressures is behind us will be proven wrong, as the impact of monetary tightening has historically worked with a lag, and certain growth supports are waning, such as excess savings and strong profit margins.”
Roth MKM analysts: “History shows years that have strong first halves typically see upside momentum continue in the second half. The one knock on the market is the underperformance of small caps, specifically the Russell 2000. While the index has dramatically underperformed the S&P 500, we have found the “average” stock is doing just fine and is faring better than the average S&P 500 stock year to date. Investors should not ignore the opportunities in small cap companies.”
