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They argue that Moderna offers much more than just the COVID vaccine. The analysts highlight that MRNA shares are down ~35% year-to-date and down ~75% from pandemic highs in 2021.
“We acknowledge the uncertainty around the commercial/endemic COVID market and uncertainty around ’23 revenues, which has been a key investor focus and headwind,” analysts said in a client note.
“However, we are upgrading now due to 1) Valuation – pullback we think has begun to reflect significant risk to COVID vaccine revenues, but not the pipeline beyond COVID, 2) pipeline progress where there is a line of sight to the next generation of mRNA vaccines beyond COVID for MRNA across RSV (’24 potential launch), flu (Ph3 data YE23) and we think notably CMV Ph3 (could complete enrollment in ’23) could be a major opp’y ($3B+) and breakthrough into latent virus vaccines broadly, if successful.”
More precisely, UBS’ analysis shows that the company’s potential for mRNA vaccines beyond COVID is “underappreciated.”
“We think MRNA’s CMV vaccine could be a major potential upside driver over the next 1-2 years,” the analysts concluded.
On the RSV front, UBS sees a market opportunity that exceeds $10 billion with Moderna potentially offering a “uniquely capable” combination of vaccines. Analysts estimate COVID + RSV alone is worth $123/sh, near current levels, for Moderna stock.
Shares are up nearly 3% in pre-open Monday.
