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The analysts maintained a Buy rating on each stock. They stated that AFRM’s “second-derivative signs point up.”
“Sentiment is too negative, and we see upside as the Street appreciates re-pricing, share gains and likely Rev Less Tx Cost (RLTC) expansion,” wrote the analysts. “We see several RLTC upside drivers, which we contend is the most important KPI: 1) a few more qtrs of positive momentum fr recent px changes; 2) growing contribution from interest bearing loans; 3) ongoing underwriting optimization; and 4) improving macro trends e.g. eCommerce spend, funding costs and credit, all of which were F23 headwinds.”
On SQ, the analysts stated that they like SQ for long-term growth investors, although they see few near-term catalysts “considering decelerating Square ecosystem GMV and gp $ growth.”
“Our l-t view is that Square is the leading software-integrated POS, and it will ultimately take share upmarket as it competes w/Clover (Fiserv , FI, Hold) and others. Cash App is the most successful neobank, in our view, and continued monetization bodes well for EBITDA upside even as the co curtails Square investments,” said the analysts.
Finally, for PayPal, the firm sees an “attractive risk/reward, despite low visibility to timing and magnitude of unbranded monetization.”
“We think PYPL has been unduly punished (-4% YTD/SPX +14%), trading at near all-time wide 54%/46% est NTM P/E discounts to Mastercard (NYSE:MA, Buy) and Visa (NYSE:V, Buy),” stated the analysts. “However, we contend monetizing unbranded Braintree and SMB vol will be challenging and will take longer than reflected in Street models.”
