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The firm expects 3% growth on average in the industry through 2025, with Amazon taking the share lead.
“We estimate AMZN’s share will reach ~14.5% in ’25 (+250 bps vs. ’22), whereas WMT holds its ~13% share through ’25,” wrote the analysts. “Our WMT US number excludes Sam’s Club (displayed separately in our model); even including Sam’s Club, WMT’s combined share (~14.2%) should still be below AMZN’s share by ’25.”
“Within e-commerce, we see AMZN accounting for ~46.5% of the market by ’25 (vs. ~43% currently),” they added.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley raised its comp forecast for Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) to ~4% in 2025 (vs. ~3% prior).
“ULTA historically gained ~40 bps of share annually pre-COVID; our updated outlook implies ~20 bps of annual share gain in ’23-’25 as the business normalizes off of record growth in ’21/’22. Our higher comp forecast is supported by ULTA’s exposure to faster-growing sub-categories including Skin Care and Color Cosmetics, discussed below,” said the analysts.
