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Bank of America values ChargePoint on a DCF basis. Analysts project an adjusted EBITDA of $136 million in CY25 and $303M in CY26, 20% over the implied consensus. Against the current EV, CHPT trades at
They wrote in a note, “The likely reason for recent underperformance is cash burn. ChargePoint realized a $290mm drag in free cash flow in CY22 (FY23) and enters CY23 with $295mm in cash and $105mm in Short Term Investments. The valuation for EV chargers is substantially based on terminal value with free cash flow negative operations inherent in the short term. Therefore, cash flow line of sight is a critical gating item for investors and one that has become increasingly challenged in this risk off market. Like our reassessment of EVgo, we rebuild our model from the ground up to focus on cash burn and cash inflection.”
With an updated model, Bank of America expects cash inflection in 4QCY24, matching management’s long-stated indications. The analysts estimate operating cash breakeven in 3Q22 (before working capital) followed by +$19M in 4Q24.
With operating cash scales to >$100M in CY25, and expected working capital drag in 2025, they expect a net cash positive year absent any outside financings. The drivers of this inflection are growth of network and recurring subscription revenues scaling over operating expenses.
For the 1Q24, Bank of America estimates ChargePoint will report an EPS of ($0.14), ahead of the consensus estimate of ($0.17).
Shares of CHPT are up 13.60% in mid-day trading on Tuesday.
