Outside the Box: A ‘perfect storm’ from higher interest rates and lower values threatens commercial real estate, construction and jobs

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As the U.S. emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, much attention has been given to rising inflation and the interest-rate hikes to combat it. But there is another looming threat with equally impactful and widespread implications for consumers and the economy: commercial real estate. About $1.5 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans are due to mature over the next two years, at a steep increase.

The combination of the tightening of lending conditions and loans refinanced at higher, unsustainable rates could potentially…