Historic Data Suggests S&P 500 Could Have Another 20% Downside, But Then Rally to 8,000 on New Bull Run

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While the S&P 500 just officially entered bear market territory early this week, investors are already looking ahead to the end of the current bear and the start of the next bull run.

Data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, the group behind the S&P 500, notes that the average bear market produces a negative 38.3% return and lasts 18.6 months.

The current bear market officially started on January 3, 2022, and the official starting price of the current bear market is 4796.56. While every bear market is different, the average bear market data suggests the current bear market will end in September 2023, with the S&P 500 at 2959, or 20% lower than current levels.

In turn, S&P Dow Jones Indices notes the average bull market has a return of 177.8% and lasts 21.4 months.

If the S&P 500 does get below 3,000 but then a new bull run ensues that could get the index to 8,220.1 and last until the summer of 2025.