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The USDA also reported U.S. March 1 wheat stocks at 1.025 billion bushels, the smallest since 2008, corn stocks at 7.850 billion bushels and soybean stocks at 1.931 billion bushels.
Highlights:
* USDA plantings and stocks summary table
* U.S. wheat stocks drop to lowest since 2008
* U.S. quarterly grain stocks highlights
* Estimates for U.S. quarterly grain stocks
* Estimates for U.S. corn, soy, wheat acreage
* Estimates for cotton, small grains acreage
* History of estimates for USDA stocks data
* History of estimates for USDA acreage data
COMMENTS:
* Terry Reilly, senior analyst, Futures International:
“We’re pretty much going to need every acre that USDA reported this year in order to meet demand … The biggest surprise was the corn acres coming in 2.5 million below trade expectations. That could reflect the shortage of supply of fertilizer and also fertilizer prices trading at a record.”
* Brian Basting, analyst with Advance Trading:
“The bean acres number is a record, and we’ll see if that is realized. When we saw the (fertilizer) price really skyrocket starting last fall, producers were looking for alternatives. They were looking at the attractive oilseed price, too.”
* Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities:
“The corn number led the charge. Acres were not good enough, and the stocks number was also less than the trade thought. … It boils down to the fertilizer costs … But as the market jumps today, these (corn) acres can come back pretty fast.”
* Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading:
“(USDA’s corn plantings forecast) tells me that farmers don’t like to pay for record fertilizer prices. They are either scaling back their fertilizer use, or they have done a bit of switching (of corn acres to soybean acres). They’re just not going to pay these prices.”
* Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with ED&F Man Capital:
“Wow. Corn (futures are) off to the races on the acreage numbers, as well as the spring wheat; new-crop beans (futures) under pressure, but I suspect that even the beans will be bought up off these numbers. Total corn and bean acres were 180.5 million, matching the high from 2020. Bean stocks were bearish as well, adding to the early selling.”
* Craig Turner, senior ag broker at Daniels Trading:
“There should have been a bigger (market) reaction to these numbers. These should have been limit-up, limit-down numbers. … They say a rising tide lifts all boats, and a rally in corn and wheat could be helping beans in this case.”
* Bob Utterback, president of Utterback Marketing:
“Remember the movie ‘The Exorcist’, where the girl’s head is spinning around and spitting out pea soup? That’s what the bears are doing right now. Most of my farmer customers are planning to shift a little of their acreage to beans. It doesn’t take a lot from all of these producers making a small shift, to add up an extra million acres.”
