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Here is a summary of some analysts’ forecast for the index:
BROKERAGE NAME S&P500 TARGET
@ END 2022
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 4,400
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 5,100-5,300
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) 5,100
RBC 5,050
BofA Global Research 4,600
Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) 5,200
Citigroup (NYSE:C) 5,100
Morgan Stanley: “While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially… 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.”
Wells Fargo: “Persistent supply shortages and inflation pressures lead us to adjust the magnitudes of some 2022 targets, but we believe the global economy should still mark an above-average pace next year. More importantly, our tactical preferences for the next 6 to 18 months are nearly all unchanged.”
Goldman Sachs: “Decelerating economic growth, a tightening Fed, and rising real yields suggest investors should expect modestly below-average returns next year.”
“In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.” RBC: “We continue to see 2022 as a solid year for the U.S. equity market, but with more moderate gains than we’ve experienced in 2021.”
“While we remain vigilant on margins, we don’t think it makes sense to assume the worst on this front given the strong track record that companies have had managing through cost pressures even before the pandemic.”
Credit Suisse: “This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening.”
Citigroup: “Earnings-related target setting inputs justify the new target. Thus, we remain moderately constructive on the broader market outlook, while acknowledging valuation headwinds as the Fed moves down a more hawkish path.”
