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Manchin, a moderate Democrat, appeared to deal a fatal blow to Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) policy bill on Sunday, which aims to expand the social safety net and tackle climate change.
“We had already expected a negative fiscal impulse for 2022 as a result of the fading support from COVID-relief legislation enacted in 2020 and 2021, and without BBB enactment, this fiscal impulse will become somewhat more negative than we had expected,” Goldmans Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius wrote in a note on Sunday.
Hatzius lowered U.S. GDP forecast for Q1 2022 to 2% from 3%, not factoring in that BBB would become a law, cut Q2 outlook to 3% from 3.5%, and Q3 forecast to 2.75% from 3%.
“While BBB in its current form looks unlikely, there is still a good chance that Congress enacts a much smaller set of fiscal proposals dealing with manufacturing incentives and supply chain issues,” Hatzius said.
Goldman Sachs says there is still a chance that Congress extends the expanded child tax credit programme, which aims at providing free childcare, with some modifications, though “the odds of this occurring are less than even.”
