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It sounds like a broken record, but Facebook Inc. continues to do just that: Break revenue records.
Despite federal regulators breathing down its neck about its business practices, threats of ad boycotts from parties aggrieved by its privacy policies and a pandemic, the social-networking juggernaut is expected to post another jaw-dropping quarterly result on Wednesday.
Facebook
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is firing on all cylinders because of — what else? — dominance in the digital ad market, which is expected to show growth as the pandemic slows down. Facebook and Google parent Alphabet Inc.
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will “benefit most from the reopening (from a user and advertiser perspective),” Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney said in an April 15 note.
At the same time, Facebook increasingly has diversified its revenue mix, adding sales of Oculus VR headsets and Portal video-chatting devices. Non-advertising revenue soared 156% to $885 million in the fiscal fourth quarter. It doesn’t end there: On Monday, Facebook announced new audio products to compete with Clubhouse and podcasts, and it is proceeding with a version of Instagram for kids.
Facebook’s growth is all the more remarkable in a political landscape fraught with federal and state antitrust lawsuits, as well as mounting investigations on Capitol Hill. On April 15, the U.S. House of Representatives Judiciary Committee approved a scathing 450-page report advocating legislation to rein in Big Tech’s expansive powers. The report, released in October, recommends an overhaul of antitrust law to counter the growing influence of Facebook, Google, Apple Inc.
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and Amazon.com Inc.
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Speaking of Apple, that tech giant plans a change to its iOS 14 software that will have an effect on Facebook and others. The change will affect a unique device identifier on every iPhone and iPad called the IDFA or the “identifier for advertisers,” which grants users more privacy and potentially disrupts the digital advertising ecosystem.
See also: Why Facebook is considering an antitrust lawsuit against Apple
Expect to hear Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg and other top Facebook brass address that change in their conference call Wednesday afternoon, after launching a full-out assault on Apple and the change late last year.
What to expect
Earnings: Facebook on average is expected to post earnings of $2.34 a share, up from $2.07 a share expected at the beginning of the quarter, based on 42 analysts surveyed by FactSet. Facebook reported earnings of $1.71 a share in the same quarter last year. Estimize, a software platform that uses crowdsourcing from hedge-fund executives, brokerages, buy-side analysts and others, calls for earnings of $2.33 a share.
Revenue: Wall Street expects revenue of $23.6 billion from Facebook, according to 34 analysts polled by FactSet. That’s up from the $22.3 billion forecast at the beginning of the quarter and $17.7 billion a year ago. Estimize expects revenue of $23.6 billion.
Stock movement: Facebook stock has declined after its past two earnings reports, but increased after five of the past eight reports. Facebook shares are up 11% in 2021, and 70% over the past 12 months, through Monday’s close of market. By comparison, the broader S&P 500 index
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has gained 11% and 47%, respectively.
What analysts are saying
Cowen analyst John Blackledge, who raised his price target on Facebook shares to $360 from $350 in an April 14 note, projects first-quarter revenue of $24.1 billion, up 36% year-over-year and 2% above consensus on strong digital of ad sales.
Wedbush Securities analyst Ygal Arounian isn’t entirely sold on commerce initiatives that Facebook is building into its platform, such as Facebook Shops and Instagram Reels.
“Facebook is the most exposed to privacy risks, particularly around Apple’s App Tracking Transparency efforts that will limit the [IDFA],” Arounian said in an April 13 note that lowered its rating on Facebook shares to neutral from outperform and sliced its price target to $340 from $375.
