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Activists wave flags last year during a rally on Capitol Hill for cannabis reform.
AFP via Getty Images
The Democratic-run House of Representatives is expected this week to pass a bill that would decriminalize marijuana at the federal level, with the move coming after the chamber’s leaders pushed back a vote on the legislation until after the Nov. 3 elections.
The measure is not on track to become law this year because it lacks support in the Republican-controlled Senate, and some analysts also are downbeat on its prospects next year, when the 117th Congress convenes.
“We subscribe to the view that pressure will build on Congress to address cannabis especially as more states act to legalize it for recreational and/or medical use; however, we do not expect this pressure to result in federal legislation during the 117th Congress,” said analysts at Height Capital Markets in a note on Tuesday.
“We will revise our odds should Democrats win the Georgia runoff elections and gain control of the Senate.”
Related: With Election Day sweep across four states, recreational pot sales will reach one-third of Americans
If Republicans win at least one of Georgia’s two U.S. Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5, their party will keep a grip on the Senate and provide a check on policies backed by the House and Democratic President-elect Joe Biden.
Height’s team said Republicans “enjoy a distinct advantage in the Georgia Senate runoff elections and are likely to maintain control of the Senate,” and that contributes to their view that during the 117th Congress the “odds of cannabis legislation becoming law” stand at “less than 25%.”
See: Georgia’s runoffs on your mind? Here’s what you need to know
Also read: Georgia’s two Senate runoff elections could spark $1 billion in political spending, analysts say
The House vote on the decriminalization bill, which is known as the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, is expected on Thursday or Friday. House approval followed by no Senate action would mirror what has happened so far with the SAFE Banking Act, a measure that aims to protect banks KBE, +2.25% that work with the cannabis industry.
The MORE Act “probably passes by a wide margin as there is little downside to supporting it because it won’t become law,” said Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, in a note on Tuesday.
Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota voiced support for the bill in a tweet on Monday:
Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana questioned Democratic lawmakers’ priorities:
Pot stocks, as tracked by the the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF MJ, -5.24%, have surged 40% over the past month, topping the broad S&P 500 index’s SPX, +1.12% rise of 12%. But the cannabis ETF still is down for year, off by 12%, while the S&P has gained 13%.
Now read: Pot stocks pop ahead of U.S., UN votes on cannabis legalization
