Election Countdown: Betting markets see Biden win as increasingly likely, while Trump struggles with aid issue

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The White House is seen in the background in a photo this week.

AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

With 27 days to go till the election, President Donald Trump was working to clarify his stance on additional coronavirus relief, as he and Democratic challenger Joe Biden prepared to watch their running mates debate on Wednesday night.

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics were giving Biden a 63.4% chance of winning the White House race vs. Trump’s 36.0% , down just slightly from a day ago, when the former vice president posted his best-ever figure for this metric — a 64.0% chance vs. the president’s 35.2%.

Data point
Polling avg. in top swing states Biden +4.4 as of Wednesday vs. Biden +3.6 a week ago
National polling avg. Biden +9.4 as of Wednesday vs. Biden +6.6 a week ago
Betting markets Biden 63.4%, Trump 36.0% as of Wednesday vs. Biden 59.8%, Trump 40.8% a week ago
S&P 500 SPX, +1.65% +1.4% Wednesday, -0.6% in 1 month
CBOE Volatility Index VIX, -5.02% -4.6% Wednesday, -8.6% in 1 month

Trump had no public events scheduled for Wednesday but had been active on Twitter. The president on Tuesday night said he supported additional targeted aid for airlines  JETS, +2.44% and small businesses, as well as another round of stimulus checks for “our great people,” with that move coming after he had tweeted on Wednesday afternoon that he was ending negotiations on a broad relief package.

But analysts said it wasn’t likely that a divided Washington would produce even targeted coronavirus aid before the Nov. 3 election, and they said the president’s initial decision to end talks was “ill-advised” politically as he aims for re-election.

Polling average for top swing states
Source: RealClearPolitics

Biden was slated to take part in fundraising events on Wednesday.

Ahead of the vice-presidential debate, one Saint Louis University expert on the vice presidency, Joel Goldstein, told MarketWatch that “because of Trump’s recent COVID diagnosis and because of the advanced ages of the candidates, it’s possible that the vice presidential debate could take on a larger importance in terms of people’s attention.” Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris of California are slated to debate at 9 p.m. Eastern Time.

U.S. stocks SPX, +1.65% DJIA, +1.80% COMP, +1.81% were trading higher Wednesday, after closing with losses on Tuesday.