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Oil prices edged up for a fourth session Tuesday, gathering support from President Donald Trump’s assurance that the China-U.S. trade deal signed in January remains in place after his trade adviser suggested the agreement between the economic superpowers was dead.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro stoked confusion among investors overnight when he told Fox News that the trade agreement was “over” in a Monday evening interview. Trump then tweeted that the deal was “fully intact.”
China is one of the world’s biggest importers of oil and news of Sino-American relations can have a seismic impact on global asset prices.
“Statements that shook the market proved to be no news and Brent has recouped the losses in early Asian trading this morning,” wrote Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, in a daily brief. Oil climbed “on the relief that the U.S.-China trade status remained intact.”
West Texas Intermediate crude for August CLQ20, +0.51%, the new front-month contract, was up 30 cents, or 0.7%, at $41.03 a barrel, after rising 2.3% on Monday.
Global benchmark Brent oil for August delivery BRNQ20, +0.60% added 21 cents, or 0.5%, at $43.29 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 2.1% gain on Monday.
Both contracts are poised to settle at their highest since early March, according to FactSet data.
Oil found further support amid “indications that despite Covid-19 infections increasing, road fuel demand and global traffic are still standing strong,” said Tonhaugen.
Prices have been rising on signs that global economies are reviving after many businesses were shutdown around the world for a couple of months to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
For example, in data published Tuesday the IHS Markit purchasing managers index for the eurozone—a measure of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors—rose to 47.5 in June from 31.9 in May to reach its highest level since February, the month before lockdowns began in Europe.
Measures of U.S. economic health also have shown evidence of improvement, which could be a positive for demand expectations for crude, experts say.
On Tuesday, the IHS Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI reading showed a rise to 49.6 in June, from 39.8 the prior month. New U.S. homes sales, meanwhile rose 16.6% in May to annual rate of 676,000.
The market has also drawn support from an agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, in a group known as OPEC+, to reduce global output by nearly 10 million barrels a day through the end of July.
Supplies in the U.S., meanwhile, are expected to post a modest decline for the week ended June 19, with analysts polled by S&P Global Platts, on average, forecasting that the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday will report a fall of 100,000 barrels in domestic crude supplies. They also expect to see a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in gasoline stockpiles, while distillate inventories are likely to edge up by 100,000 barrels.
Back on Nymex, July gasoline RBN20, +1.58% added 1.5% to $1.31 a gallon, while July heating oil HON20, +0.54% rose 0.5% to $1.2248 a gallon.
Read:Why gasoline is set to lead a bumpy rebound in transportation fuels
July natural gas NGN20, -2.04% traded at $1.618 per million British thermal units, down 2.8%.
