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As the market for exchange-traded funds matures, it’s coalescing around a few winners and leaving laggards behind, allowing ETF trends to more clearly reflect what’s going on in broader financial markets.
That’s the conclusion of a Wednesday research note from DataTrek Research Co-founder Nicholas Colas.
So far in 2020, 77 new ETFs have launched, but 123 have closed, Colas noted: “We’ve been actively covering the ETF industry since the Financial Crisis and cannot recall ever seeing the number of ETFs actually shrink.”
Related:These are the companies that open — and close — the most ETFs
But it’s not the ETF universe that’s shrinking: funds have attracted $108 billion of new money in the year to date. Rather, market churn is designating clear winners and losers. Colas calls it “peak Darwin” for ETFs. Out of nearly 2,300 funds, just over a dozen are emerging as the heavyweights, and they’re mostly concentrated into three broad categories, as shown in the table below.
| US equities (47%, among 8 funds:) |
| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO, +0.39% |
| iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV, +0.37% |
| Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF VO, +0.22% |
| Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI, +0.43% |
| Vanguard Growth ETF VUG, +0.92% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, +1.29% |
| Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund XLV, +0.45% |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE, -1.33% |
| Fixed income (25% of total, in 4 funds:) |
| SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF BIL, +0.02% |
| iShares Barclays Short Treasury Bond Fund SHV, -0.00% |
| iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund SHY, +0.01% |
| iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD, -0.85% |
| Commodities (18% in 3 funds) |
| SPDR Gold Trust GLD, -1.46% |
| iShares Gold Trust IAU, -1.16% |
| United States Oil Fund USO, -3.58% |
“Investors are largely allocating capital to US large caps, short term Treasuries, investment grade corporates, gold,” Colas noted.
See:Vanguard blew away the competition in Q1, fund flow data show
2020’s winners and losers in terms of returns also tell a story about how industry and the economy is changing.
The biggest winner so far, with a 36% return, is ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF CLIX, +0.94% , a popular way to play the coronavirus-induced stay-at-home orders. The biggest loser, reflecting the global oil price war and glut, is the Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas PXJ, -1.35% fund, down more than 60%.
See:Retail investors are getting ‘hosed’ with the biggest oil ETF down more than 30% this week
