U.S. Tax Cuts, Italy Stimulus, Central Banks Off-Cycle: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) — Welcome to Wednesday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• A payroll tax cut that President Donald Trump is pushing for would get money into consumers’ hands quickly but may not be enough to stave off a recession, according to economists. Meantime, U.S. recession odds jumped to the highest since 2009
• Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is preparing to increase Italy’s fiscal stimulus program for the fourth time in a month, officials said, after the EU agreed to stretch its budget rules to the limit
• Central banks across Asia must consider whether they can afford to wait until their next scheduled policy meetings or respond sooner to mounting risks. Bloomberg Economics sees global growth slowing to 1.5% year on year in the first quarter
• The coronavirus is threatening to expose the Achilles heel of the U.S. economy: heavily leveraged companies. Business debt ballooned and now exceeds that of households for the first time since 1991
• The Australian central bank deputy governor said interest-rate cuts are supporting the economy, while acknowledging the supply-side impact of the coronavirus is impervious to monetary policy
• The coronavirus is accelerating a shakeout in China’s property sector as a cash crunch forces distressed developers to fold
• Anyone expecting Germany to ride to the rescue of Europe’s economy is in for a wait, with policy makers reluctant to move until the crisis deepens within its borders
• The richest Nordic economy risks sinking into a recession for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, after a collapse in oil prices added to the fallout of the coronavirus.
• An office schedule dubbed “996” is a burdensome reality for China’s tech workers. With the coronavirus forcing the sector’s employees to log in remotely, they’re discovering this can be even worse
• Italy and its 60.4 million inhabitants are in near-total lockdown. But what does that actually mean?

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