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Italy aired plans Tuesday to allow families to suspend mortgage and some tax payments to help them deal with a coronavirus outbreak that has killed 463 people and forced the government to restrict movement for its 60 million citizens.
Ministers said they would also ask the European Union to allow Rome to raise its deficit spending beyond the 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) planned to help businesses hurt by a sharp drop in tourism over the past month.
The new family and small business support measures are due to be unveiled in a government decree on Wednesday.
The Milan market I945, -1.16% steadied itself after falling by more than 11% on Monday and was up fractionally on broader expectations of a coordinated global government response to the rapidly unfolding crisis.
“The measures (will apply) for all of Italy,” Deputy Economy Minister Castelli said.
Castelli said the family support measures could include “the suspension of the payment of (salary) withholdings and contributions” to various Italian tax funds.
Some banks expect Italy’s economy to contract by 1.0% between April and June.
“We are worried about this and for this reason we pushed the banking system to give as much as possible (on the) suspension of mortgages,” she said.
“You will see the details in the next few hours.”
Troubled banks
Italy on Tuesday imposed travel restrictions and a ban on public gatherings to help fight the spread of a disease that has infected more than 9,000 people in the Mediterranean country in just over two weeks.
The latest social distancing measures expand those the government placed Sunday on the economically vibrant Lombardy region that bore the early brunt of the COVID-19 disease.
Economists at Citi said the latest round of Italian restrictions is likely to result in “a sharp contraction similar to the 2008-09 recession”.
“It remains very difficult at this stage to gauge the extent of the decline, but this will most likely much bigger than our original estimate of 0.5-0.6%,” they said in a research note.
Citi’s original estimate was based only on restrictions for Lombardy and other industrial parts of the north that account for around 40% of Italy’s total output.
Any measure even partially suspending family mortgage payments could deliver a painful blow to big banks that are still dealing with large amounts of non-performing loans.
“Since economic activity is likely to drop, banks could see a fall in asset quality and an increase in non-performing loans and provisions,” Rabobank warned in a note.
“Many of these factors affect banks across the board, but the lockdowns in Italy coupled with the high branch density are likely to accentuate the headwinds.”
Rome aired plans last week to inject 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) into the economy to help businesses — particularly those in the tourism sector — to get by in the coming weeks and months.
But Economic Development Minister Stefano Patuanelli said “seven and seven and a half billion are not enough to face down the crisis”.
Patuanelli told Italian radio that Rome was working on a proposal to ask Brussels to raise Italy’s spending by around 10 billion euros.
That accounts for about 0.6% of Italy’s gross domestic product.
Italy needs special EU permission to spend more than allowed under the bloc’s strict budgetary rules for its 27 member states.
Patuanelli’s comments came as EU leaders prepared to hold an emergency videoconference on Tuesday aimed at coordinating their response to the outbreak
