Economic Report: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index continues long trend in contractionary territory

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Economists have been talking about the possibility of a stabilization in the factory sector.


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The numbers: The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity improved slightly to negative 5.9 in November from negative 9 in the prior month. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions. 

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected a negative 7.5 reading in November.

This is the 16th negative reading in the past 18 months.

Key details: The barometer on new orders fell 3 points but remained at positive 1.3 in November.

The shipments index dropped sharply from 10.8 in October to negative 17.9 this month.

The six-month business outlook fell from 9.2 in October to negative 2.1 this month, which was the first negative reading since May.

Big picture: Economists have been talking about the possibility of a stabilization in the factory sector.

Earlier this week, the Empire State index rose to 9.1, the highest level since April.

The New York and Philadelphia Fed reports are the first regional manufacturing gauges that offer timely reads of the manufacturing sector.

In October, the national ISM factory index fell 2.3 percentage points to 46.7%.

What are they saying? “This can be a volatile indicator, and therefore any single monthly result ought not to be extrapolated. With the exception of what seems to be an anomalous August result, the general picture is one of a difficult business environment,” said Josh Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc.

Market reaction: Stocks
DJIA

SPX
were lower on Thursday, while the 10-year Treasury yield
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
fell about 7 basis points to 4.45% in early morning trading,