Susquehanna cuts airlines price targets as ‘things could get worse before they get better’

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The analysts told investors in a note that with its airline coverage down fully ~35% since early July, the view is “a bottom is here (or close) would seem reasonable.”

However, “with FY24 consensus estimates for capacity still aspirational, we believe things could get worse before they get better, with holiday travel, fuel, and the geopolitical landscape all key items to watch into YE23,” the analysts wrote.

Here are the price target changes:

“With DAL kicking off 3Q earnings season for the airlines this Thursday, sentiment for the group is among the most negative we have seen in some time, contrasting the ‘will they survive’ viewpoint during the depths of the pandemic with ‘how low can 2024 earnings’ go,” the analysts added. “We are maintaining our Positive views on DAL, ALK and SNCY, given our belief they are best positioned within their respective operating groups.”

Even so, Susquehanna believes near-term, up/downside risk is likely skewed to the latter or at least until consensus reflects what they believe will be lower capacity for FY24.