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The firm remains optimistic about Buy-rated Mattel being able to achieve its 2023 guidance, although they note the year may be a bit more back-end weighted than previously anticipated.
“While there are rising concerns about the state of retail, high-margin contributions from Barbie should hopefully offset softness in other areas of the business,” the analysts wrote.
The rising concerns regarding the condition of retail are fueling anxieties about the holiday season, according to Roth MKM but they believe the global strength from Barbie should be sufficient to largely offset those pockets of softness within other areas of Mattel’s product portfolio.
Even so, the firm modestly lowered its full-year net sales and EPS estimate for Mattel to $5.530bn (+2%) and $1.17 (-6.5%), respectively, down from the prior view of $5.557bn and $1.20.
Looking ahead, the analysts said that attractive drivers are in place for 2024.
“First, it is likely Mattel will enter 2024 with lesser inventory headwinds than it faced this year, making for relatively easy 1H comparisons,” they wrote. “Second, Barbie momentum from movie economics and licensing should carry over into next year and there should be significant promotions around the brand’s 65th anniversary celebration.
“Third, Disney Princess should benefit from a full year’s inventory contribution and Hot Wheels should be able to grow for a seventh consecutive year,” they added. “Fourth, the relaunch of Barney the Dinosaur, which while not necessarily being very toyetic, does fuel meaningful licensing dollars.”
