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Analysts expect Tesla to report 3Q deliveries of 455K units, falling short of both the consensus forecast of 463,000 and the previously published estimate of 483,000. This projection also signifies a decrease compared to the second quarter of 2023, when Tesla delivered 466,000 units.
Barclays analysts wrote in a note, “Our estimate implies a sharp step down in September deliveries vs. Jun’23. While Jul/Aug’23 tracked at an est. 285k units (up from 255k in Apr/May’23), we nevertheless assume 170k in Sep., down from 212k in Jun’23.”
Barclays’ estimate for 3Q deliveries takes into account recent discussions regarding production speed, which offer some insight into the expected delivery volume for this period. Specifically, delivery projections rely on a production assumption of approximately 435,000 units, along with a reduction in inventory by 20,000 units.
A Tesla tweet on September 17th announced that they had produced their 5 millionth vehicle the previous week. An earlier post on Weibo pinpointed the milestone as being achieved on September 16th. Assuming the accuracy of the Weibo post’s timing and considering Tesla’s historical production rates, along with assumptions about weekly production for the rest of September, Barclays’ forecast for Tesla’s third-quarter 2023 production stands at 435,000 units.
Shares of TSLA are up 1.02% in premarket trading Friday morning.
