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U.S. and global benchmark crude futures ended Tuesday at their highest since mid-April, lifted by signs of tightening supply as traders awaited central bank meetings this week that may provide clues on the energy demand outlook.
Price action
-
West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery
CL00,
+1.08% CLU23,
+1.08%
rose 89 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $79.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on front-month prices, the U.S. benchmark finished at its highest since April 18, according to Dow Jones Market Data. -
September Brent crude
BRN00,
-0.07% BRNU23,
-0.08% ,
the global benchmark, climbed by 90 cents, or 1.1%, to $83.64 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, also the highest settlement since April 18. -
August gasoline
RBQ23,
-1.34%
settled at $2.85 a gallon, down 1.4%, after ending Monday at its highest since October. August heating oil added 0.3% to $2.78 a gallon. -
Natural gas for August delivery
NGQ23,
+1.75%
tacked on 1.7% to $2.73 per million British thermal units.
Market drivers
Oil prices remain lower year to date but recently found their footing on expectations the physical market will move into deficit over the second half of the year. Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have helped underpin those expectations.
“Oil moved first on the dovish tone in a statement from the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party; now oil markets are pausing, waiting for specific easing measures,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, told MarketWatch. At the same time, “the deteriorating global manufacturing landscape continues to push back on the bullish thesis” for oil.
China’s top leaders on Monday indicated they would take steps to boost the world’s second-largest economy as it continues to falter following the lifting of strict COVID-19 curbs earlier this year.
“Longer term, the big uncertainty is the global economy and traders will be watching all inflation data as a predictor of interest rates, which in turn should be a leading indicator of economic growth,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.
Traders await the outcome of monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and European Central bank Thursday.
Recently, resilient economic data and hopes for a “less-hawkish Fed in the quarters ahead have supported gains in oil,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter.
Read: Consumer confidence climbs to 2-year high as worry over inflation and recession ease
However, “the hard data has begun to show cracks emerging in domestic demand,” with the the last two Energy Information Administration reports showing a sharp and sudden slowdown in gasoline supplied, they said.
Read: Here’s what might lead to a 10% spike in retail gasoline prices
If that continues, it will be difficult for oil to hold its current upward trajectory with 2023 resistance at $80 to $83 a barrel coming into view, they said.
The EIA will release its weekly U.S. petroleum supply report Wednesday morning.
On average for the week ended July 21, analysts expect the report to show supply declines of 4.4 million barrels for crude, 2 million barrels for gasoline, and 2.3 million barrels for distillates, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“The market is going to look at U.S. inventory numbers to see whether they indicate an elevated level of exports, which would indicate how tight Asian markets especially are,” said Lynch.
