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Leerink raised its Ingrezza sales estimates once again based on the strong Rx trends. Ingrezza estimates were raised from ~$1.75 billion to ~$1.8B, from $2.0B to $2.1B, and from $2.2B to $2.3B for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively.
Furthermore, the firm indicated that the pipeline gets minimal value in the stock, and yet in H2/23, there are a few pipeline catalysts that they believe have a good chance of being successful and driving the stock price higher.
Among these catalysts, the two (adult and pediatric) crinecerfont trials in congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) are particularly promising. According to commentary from MEDACorp key opinion leaders (KOLs), Phase 2 data demonstrated significant reductions in androgen levels following crinecerfont treatment, raising confidence in the likelihood of success.
Despite the potential competition, the firm believes that the peak sales for crinecerfont in the US and EU regions could reach an impressive range of $500 million to $1B, capturing around 30% of the market share.
