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The analysts see the company posting revenue and GAAP profit of $132.4 billion and $5.1 billion, respectively, which is above the consensus of $131.5B and $4.7B. On AWS, analysts note that the Street is looking for 6-7 points of deceleration to 9.5% year-over-year. The analysts view this as “achievable.”
“While July AWS growth expectations may have been as low as 8% in May, we think expectations may have moved higher (towards 10%) on recent 3P data,” analysts commented. “Tough 2Q comp set up for AWS vs. Azure is a trading risk (MSFT reports 7/25), but we think positive could be AWS growth is nearing a bottom in July (easing comps).”
On the retail side of Amazon’s business, analysts are above consensus for 2Q margins, and they expect positive commentary on efficiency opportunities, which would be consistent with the CEO’s recent CNBC interview.
On guidance, they see third-quarter revenue and profit of $139.9B and $5.7B, respectively, versus the consensus of $138B and $5.2B.
Further, analysts see a “favorable” fourth-quarter AWS comp setup. “2H’22 (last year) had both disappointing sequential AWS dollar adds and the worst eCommerce holiday since the Great Recession, in our view, setting up easier comps. The Street projects AWS growth in the 9-10% Y/Y range through 2H’23 (per Bloomberg), which could be conservative as AWS laps the start of last year’s optimization cycle, and we see upside potential on retail efficiencies.”
While shares are up 58% year-to-date, the analysts note the stock is still trading below their historical EBITDA multiple averages – currently at 13.5x versus 17.4x since 20210. As such, they think further multiple expansion is possible and reiterated a Buy rating and $154 price target.
