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They see the potential for a pullback in NFLX stock after the Q2 EPS report. Hence, they “would prefer to buy NFLX shares after the print rather than before.”
“Buyside expectations in terms of Net Sub Adds are almost certainly higher than Street, with the market likely looking for more like 4MM-5MM Subs in Q2 and a similar to higher level in Q3 (5-7MM). If the positive intra-quarter Sub trends reported by third-party tracking services are accurate, these expectations appear reasonable. But we would view them as likely limiting the opportunity for upside surprise and increasing the odds of a negative surprise,” the analysts explained in a client note.
They recently issued a “Tactical Underperform” call on Netflix stock and removed it from the list of Top Picks last month. Still, the analysts remain bullish long-term on NFLX stock.
“We are sticking with Outperform rating on NFLX as we believe this stock still has legs – we would point you to our 20 by 25 Bull Case for Netflix (analysis here), that is, $20 in ’25 EPS with a 25X P/E multiple to $500 in share price by ’24, driven by an incremental 20-30MM subs growth from ’23 to ’25 from SAVOD and Paid Sharing benefits. With 1) fundamentals improving, 2) moving past peak competition, 3) product initiatives (SAVOD & Paid Sharing) ramping up, and 4) profitability strengthening with FCF inflection, margin expansion, cash content cost reaching scale, and buybacks resuming, we believe there is still a lot to like about NFLX at this level for longterm investors.”
They expect that Netflix’s Q2 revenue increased by 3.9% year-over-year on the back of the 2.22 million increase in the net new subscribers. These estimates are “reasonable,” the analysts said.
Similarly, Street’s Q3 estimates are “bracketable.” Moreover, Evercore ISI’s survey results continue to be positive for Netflix.
Netflix shares are down 0.3% in pre-open Monday.
