Etsy soft June traffic suggests guidance miss – BTIG

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The analysts, who maintained a $108 price target on Buy-rated Etsy, lowered estimates for the company as the firm’s 2Q23 tracking suggests buying activity on the Etsy.com marketplace softened in June compared to May.

“While the last week of June showed some improvement, the totality of our tracking leads us to believe 2Q23 consensus GMS is too high. The Street is looking for consolidated GMS of $3.03B, above the midpoint of the $2.85-$3.10B guidance range,” they wrote.

“Returning to our tracking, both our clickstream and debit card data is pointing to a sequential GMS decline on Etsy.com in the high-single-digit range (note our clickstream data is global, but our card data is U.S.-only).”

BTIG sees a soft trend in the last month of the quarter, making it hard for Etsy to guide to the 3% quarter-on-quarter growth the Street is looking for.

“If our tracking bears out, it would continue a pattern formed over the last 5-6 quarters where Etsy has guided the forward quarter below consensus expectations,” said the analysts. “The Street is already above the midpoint of guidance, and we think consumer spending is incrementally weaker now than in 2Q.”