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U.S. policymakers are stealing the spotlight in the markets today, after the Fed cemented its hawkish credentials overnight and Janet Yellen started a trip to China just as Beijing restricts chip-making metal exports.
APAC investors clearly took notice, sending stocks sliding and bond yields higher in a signal that Europe should brace for the same.
The key takeaway from minutes of the Fed’s June meeting overnight is that the unanimous decision to hold wasn’t so unanimous after all, with the hawks just biding their time.
Traders see a July hike as pretty much assured, but it’s still a coin toss whether there will be another after that.
There are no fewer than four U.S. labour market reports due in the next 48 hours, culminating with Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury secretary touches down to start a three-day China visit. It’s currently a balmy 36 degrees Celsius in Beijing, but the atmosphere is decidedly frosty after the usual red carpet was replaced with a warning that curbs on shipments of gallium and germanium were a “well thought-out heavy punch”, but also “just a start”.
China says it’s not targeting any particular country, but the United States – with help from somewhat less-keen allies in Japan and the Netherlands – has ramped up restrictions on chip-tech trade with China for months.
Another tech war is also heating up between billionaires Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk.
Zuckerberg has been live, um, threading that sign-ups for the potential Twitter-killing app Threads passed 5 million in the first four hours.
No updates on the pair’s proposed cage match.
Britain will report construction PMIs for June later in the day, as will Germany, which also has factory order figures for May on the release schedule.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
Yellen begins 3-day China visit
UK and Germany June construction PMIs, Germany May factory orders
US initial jobless claims, ADP employment report, JOLTS job openings, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) PMIs
