American Express stock cut at Baird on valuation, ‘softer economic outlook’

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While they argue that AXP remains well-positioned to drive top-line growth, risk/reward is “no longer attractive.”

“The Amex guide implies strong FY2023 top and bottom-line growth, but we are downgrading our rating to Neutral here given a much more balanced risk/reward with the stock trading at ~15x P/E,” the analysts said in a note.

Overall, the analysts believe U.S. banks are likely to report mixed results despite low expectations.

“Mixed NII/NIM outlook remains primary headwind, but valuations reflect broadly low expectations, downgrading AXP to Neutral. Q223 trends are likely to be characterized by flattish to slightly lower NII, slower loan growth, flattish fees, and stable credit quality. We expect spread revenue trends to remain challenged near term, but believe pricing in permanent ROA degradation is too draconian. We remain broadly constructive on the regionals,” they added.