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Analysts wrote in a note, “We believe robotaxis (and autonomous vehicles in general) could potentially transform society more than anything else in our lifetimes. They could save millions of lives and trillions of hours. We believe this fact alone should motivate regulators to support their development as we anticipate private cars being banned in many cities around the globe. Importantly, given how much value and convenience they offer and low pricing, given the elimination of the driver, we see consumers switching away from private car ownership. We conservatively assume 25% Tesla robotaxi penetration in the US, 8% in Western Europe, and 7% in China. We also max out our licensing penetration assumption at 20% of non-Tesla robotaxis globally.”
Analysts anticipate a future where the life-saving capabilities and significant accident reduction provided by autonomous software become widely recognized. In this scenario, governments are likely to enforce its mandatory inclusion in all new car sales. Such a move would not only result in a higher adoption rate of L2+ autonomy, but also potentially lead to a decrease in its pricing. Notably, despite the stand-alone car business experiencing a decline in gross margins from 18% in 2023 to 15% by 2035, as estimated by RBC Capital, when combined with FSD (Full Self-Driving) and licensing, the overall gross margins are projected to surpass 30% by 2035.
Shares of TSLA are down 3.06% in pre-market trading on Thursday.
