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Ukraine’s army has launched its counteroffensive to retake territory in the east and south and sever Crimea from occupying Russia. The task is made tougher by NATO’s broader European defense strategy and has implications for Chinese efforts to exert soft power and displace the U.S. dollar
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Historically, NATO’s strategy has been deterrence by punishment or retaliation. The border with Russia and Belarus from northeastern Norway to Poland is not heavily armed. Should Russia invade and occupy NATO territory, the alliance is prepared only to mount a counteroffensive.
This was consistent with the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 in which Russia and the West pledged to build a durable peace based on mutual trust and cooperation. This myth was shattered with Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014.
Russian President Vladimir Putin can concentrate his military resources on Ukraine without fear of a NATO incursion along the frontier and confident that NATO’s superior air power will not attack Russia’s supply lines, air force and equipment on the ground.
Consequently, U.S. President Joe Biden has been reluctant to arm Kyiv with F-16 fighters, long-range missiles and intelligence to attack logistic centers, factories, infrastructure and military leaders deep inside Russia. Biden also hasn’t provided Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems, MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones and ground-launched small diameter bombs.
So far, Putin has been able to set the rules to give him the best chance of winning in Ukraine and a free hand to commit atrocities without little fear of reprisal. Indeed, Russia could potentially gain a slice of Ukraine and recognition of its annexation of Crimea without losing an inch of Russia territory. Sanctions are a poor substitute for kinetic power when a small democracy is invaded by a large autocratic state with an imperial appetite for much more.
In response, the Ukrainian military, lacking a competitive air force, must undertake a high risk “combined arms approach” that carefully choreographs infantry, armor, combat engineers and air defenses.
Led by India and South Africa, developing nations outside the Western alliance and the axis of autocrats can plead neutrality or disinterest in the Ukrainian conflict, while their businesses buy Russian oil and ship to Russia goods and material that may be used to make weapons that are otherwise subject to Western sanctions.
Moreover, China is a more important economic partner by size of trade and aid through its Belt and Road initiative for many emerging economies. In the competition for support from important developing nations, America and Western Europe can be seen as half-committed friends, and China can paint the U.S. as a declining hegemon that can be outlasted.
And with the U.S. displaying weakness and timidity on defense and security, China’s efforts to gain diplomatic influence among developing nations and challenge the world’s U.S. dollar-based trading system can’t help but gain traction. Brazil, for example, will clear transactions with China in yuan CNYUSD. The BRIC nations are exploring an alternative to the dollar, and that club has many applicants for membership.
What can the U.S. offer? The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is the template for Biden’s approach to trade and economic cooperation with emerging economies, but it is nothing more than revanchist protectionism and mercantilism. The Americans seek labor-market reforms, protection of intellectual property and standards friendly to U.S. exports but don’t offer the tariff reductions that industrializing economies most need.
NATO must act
NATO’s stance toward Putin emboldens the autocrats leading Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and North Korea. What happens in Ukraine could well happen next in Taiwan, and it’s high-time NATO went on an aggressive footing. NATO can start by forward-deploying whole brigades along its frontier with Russia and Belarus — capable of offensive incursions. It should also establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine and supply the missiles and aircraft Kyiv needs to take the war into Russia.
The NATO alliance can be effective should Putin dare challenge the Western military with nuclear weapons. The U.S. military is capable of sinking Russia’s navy in the Black Sea and Mediterranean and destroying aircraft in Syria and Libya.
After Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine, the West should want more than an economically viable and defendable Ukraine that leaves Putin’s regime in place.
The Russian people are discouraged. Inflicting a knockout punch in Ukraine could be the end of Putin, curb Chinese President Xi Jinping ’s appetite for Taiwan and discourage neutrality by India and other developing countries.
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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