NIO earnings, commodity outlook, rig count: 3 things to watch

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The Federal Reserve is preparing to meet to decide the next step on interest rates. Between now and that two-day meeting, which starts on Tuesday, the only other major data point awaiting release is the consumer price index for May. Analysts are hoping to see more signs that prices are cooling.

Futures markets are betting on the probability of a Fed pause next week. The decision comes out on Wednesday, accompanied by a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell, who will likely be asked whether the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening phase.

Expectations for a rate cut later this year are diminishing, though several Wall Street economists also see less of a chance of a recession. Futures traders are also factoring in another quarter of a percentage point rate hike in July, depending on what the data say between now and then.

Here are three things that could affect markets tomorrow:

1. NIO earnings

Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) is expected to report a $2.63 loss per share on revenue of $11.9 billion.

2. Commodity outlook

The USDA will release its supply and demand report for the month at 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT), detailing numbers for grains, soybeans and other commodities. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said El Nino has emerged, with conditions expected to cause more extreme weather events. The news came out as the East Coast of the U.S. continues to experience a thick smoke condition from Canadian wildfires.

3. Rig count

The Baker-Hughes oil rig count is expected to come out at 13:00 ET. The number of rigs has steadily fallen over the past four weeks, reaching 555 last week.