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The analysts, who have an Overweight rating and a $200 price target on the stock, said that in a tougher recession and sharp travel fall-off, where revenue growth is cut in half, they “estimate mid to high single-digit EPS risk, implying an excellent risk/reward given valuation.”
“Their ability to flex peak investment expense is a powerful lever,” wrote the analysts.
The analysts also noted that most investor questions are around credit, particularly on millennial account growth, and while they feel it is important, they believe it overshadows AXP’s strengthening competitive position and scale advantage, “which is deepening the moat around the affluent consumer and small business.”
“Only 20% of revs are lending NII, as 80% is volume/fees. Their international growth (~20% of spend) also seems underappreciated as we believe it can grow at elevated rates for many years,” the analysts added.
