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They told investors in a note that Airbnb has been the second-worst performer in the firm’s coverage through the Q1 results season, with the stock down 9% since 24 April.
“Much can be explained by an over extrapolation of the Q2 guide and the subsequent downward consensus revisions, but there are specific fears that Airbnb is losing share – with comparisons being made between (1) Airbnb’s 17% room night growth in Q1 and Booking’s Alternative commentary of +45% and (2) Airbnb’s mid-teens revenue growth commentary and higher guidance given by hotel focussed platforms,” the analysts wrote.
“Booking is executing well in vacation rentals, but it is benefiting from an easier comp and geographic tailwinds. Compared to 2019, we estimate Booking’s Alternative business is up ~26% vs Airbnb 49%. The YoY underperformance by Airbnb is due to geographic tailwinds: despite progress in the US, Booking’s VR supply remains heavily Europe skewed (more self-catering units in Austria +Poland+Croatia than the US),” they explained.
Overall, Bernstein sees further opportunities for Airbnb to expand its take rate from new revenue streams and sponsored placement and “see further upside to margin as marketing spend rolls off and scale continues to grow.”
Elsewhere, on Wednesday, Phillip Capital upgraded Airbnb to Buy from Accumulate with a $143 price target, down from $149.
The firm stated that “1Q23 revenue/PATMI was within expectations at 19%/6% of our FY23e forecasts because of seasonality weakness.”
“Revenue growth of 20% YoY was led by a 19% YoY surge in booking volumes. We expect profitability in 2H23e to rebound strongly driven by summer travel demand and higher operating leverage.”
