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The analysts told investors that Ferguson is a “quality share gainer” poised for a re-rate.
“FERG is a specialty distributor of plumbing, HVAC & appliances with 50% of its business in more complex projects, where FERG is uniquely positioned to service compared to smaller competitors due to its scale & breadth of products,” said the analysts.
They added that the company does not compete on price and “differentiates itself on service, technology, and value-add capabilities, allowing it to outpace the mkt by 300-400 bps.”
As a result, Jefferies believes FERG should be resilient in a downturn, driven by its pricing power, high variable cost structure, and capital-light model.
“We see a re-rate opportunity following the divestiture of its European business & primary listing move to the NYSE (hence the coverage change),” the analysts added. “The stock has seen technical pressure due to its removal (13% outflow) from European indices & JEF Index strategy team sees the inclusion of the Russell 1000 (potentially in June) and S&P500 translating to 20-25% inflow in purchases.”
The analysts concluded that Ferguson is “due for a catch-up trade,” and they see long-term investors gravitating to quality names like FERG as sentiment on housing improves.
