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JMP Securities upgraded LegalZoom.com Inc (NASDAQ:LZ) to Market Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $14.00 as the company has fully rolled out “free” in its marketing, which the firm believes can accelerate share gains through 2023.
Shares closed more than 9% higher today.
According to the firm, improved freemium attach rates, improving share gains (including Q1/23 traffic share), and continued expense discipline have alleviated the concerns it had at the time of the downgrade.
To that end, the firm anticipates a potential rerating of shares due to increased revenue growth, given greater market share, and a more enduring, revamped LZ Tax product, while valuation has yet to factor in the company’s improved competitive position.
LegalZoom’s recent incorporation of $0 LLC business formation fees on its home page (as of last week), coupled with the successful rollout of SEM in all tested states except Hawaii and Alaska, has led the firm to believe that LegalZoom is now at an inflection point in terms of gaining market share.
By using price as a competitive weapon, the firm believes that LegalZoom can more effectively challenge private companies that have used price to take share—specifically, ZenBusiness and IncFile.
“We are now seeing confirmation of this as website visits growth has improved since 4Q22 given LegalZoom exposed more traffic to freemium,” said the firm, noting that it anticipates an acceleration in both website traffic and business formation share in 2023, as freemium is more prominently featured across all marketing channels.
In March, non-seasonally adjusted business applications were 615,000, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth rate and indicating that entrepreneurship remains strong in 2023. This has bolstered JMP Securities’ confidence in its above-consensus Q1/23 estimates. Additionally, the firm noted that stable work-from-home trends suggest that LegalZoom’s guidance, which assumes a downturn in entrepreneurship this year, may be overly conservative.
The company is set to report its Q1/23 earnings on May 9. Consensus estimates stand at $0.06 for EPS and $155.05 million for revenues.
