Carnival Corp. lifted at Susquehanna as volume and pricing tracks ‘solidly’ above 2019

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Susquehanna raised Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) to Positive from Neutral, raising its price target on the cruise line stock to $11 from $8 per share in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Susquehanna analysts told investors that volume and pricing for cruise lines are tracking solidly above 2019 levels.

They also believe that Monday’s share price fall following CCL’s earnings release “reflects some concern that on the strength of the 2023 Wave Season, CCL might be reverting back to its old ways – specifically, growing at mid-SD capacity, with net p/diems trailing adjusted NCCs.”

“We disagree with this view and see the various initiatives that CCL has in place as helping to drive unit margin recovery into FY24, with liquidity concerns effectively de-risked through YE23,” the analysts wrote.

Susquehanna feels that although FX and fuel are a drag on Carnival’s FY23 adjusted EBITDA, the “strong 2023 Wave Season sets up a constructive, fundamental runway for FY23.”

The analysts see Carnival’s “revenue and marketing initiatives, fleet optimization plan, new perspective in the C-suite, and the value gap to land-based alternatives supporting a steady recovery for adjusted EBITDA into FY24.”