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Bond yields rose on Thursday as traders continued to absorb minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest rate-setting meeting.
What’s happening
-
The yield on the 2-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.715%
added 1.2 basis points to 4.712%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. -
The yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.945%
climbed 2.1 basis points to 3.945%. -
The yield on the 30-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD30Y,
3.937%
rose 2.2 basis points to 3.938%.
What’s driving markets
Treasury yields were higher after minutes of the Fed’s early February rate-setting meeting gave little indication the central bank would veer from its tighter policy trajectory.
The firmer trend in yields was underpinned by news that eurozone inflation remains stubbornly high at 8.6%, pushing benchmark German bund yields
TMBMKDE-10Y,
up 2.2 basis points to 2.546%.
Markets are pricing in a 73% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.0% after its meeting on March 22nd, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The chances of a 50 basis point hike are 27%, up from 1.3% a month ago.
The central bank is expected to take its Fed funds rate target to 5.1% by August 2023, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures. About three weeks ago that “terminal rate” was seen at 4.9%.
U.S. economic updates set for release on Thursday include the weekly initial jobless claims report and the first revision of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, both due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is due to speak at 10:50 a.m. and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will make comments at 2 p.m.
What are analysts saying
“The typical end-cycle environment is coming into place — mixed economic signals with a downward bias combining with Fed policy focused on corralling inflation by reducing labor demand. Recession will result. Forget the Fed stopping to wait and watch and hope that inflation bends towards 2% without a recession. That horse has left the barn,” said Steven Blitz, analyst at TS Lombard.
“It was good to read [in the Fed minutes] that they saw the funds rate only ‘moving toward a sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy.’ As I have long argued, rates have just gotten to the starting gate. The economic slowdown to date has had little to do with Fed policy (though they took their bows), but with the economy naturally slowing from its unsustainable 6% pace in 2021– created by fiscal transfer, reopening, and Fed underwriting. That was then, the Fed owns what happens next,” Blitz added.
