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Crypto bank Silvergate Capital (NYSE:SI) fell another 3% in pre-open trading Monday after Morgan Stanley analysts have given up any near-term hope for the company in the wake of the FTX collapse and, as a result, downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal-Weight.
“The ongoing stress in the crypto ecosystem post the FTX collapse drives a wide range of risks for Silvergate, the only pure-play crypto-bank in our group,” the analysts commented.
In the near term, they see a “significant uncertainty” for deposit flows. “Customers who use Silvergate’s SEN network hold noninterest-bearing deposits at Silvergate to facilitate their crypto transactions,” the analysts commented. “While Silvergate does not charge customers to use the SEN, it benefits by investing those deposits into securities to earn the spread.”
As clients withdraw their deposits, Silvergate faces pressure on both their Net Interest Margins (NIM) and Net Interest Income (NII) as “they would need to fund deposit outflows with securities sales and more expensive wholesale
borrowing”, the analysts added.
The firm is modeling the company’s digital deposits down 60% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. “Our 2023 EPS estimates of $1.58 (with a range of $1.07-$3.74 in the base case given the elevated uncertainty) are well below consensus estimates of $4.19,” they further noted.
The analysts also think the fallout of the FTX collapse could drive litigation and headline risk across the crypto space.
The firm maintained a $24 price target on Silvergate.
