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Anmuth told investors that the e-commerce giant maintains a 40% share of the US e-commerce market and “looks well-positioned after doubling its fulfillment network & workforce since the pandemic began, while faster delivery speeds, higher in-stock levels, & earlier timing of holiday promotions should spur demand.”
“AMZN remains our best idea, but of course it is also subject to macro headwinds, as evident in the company’s 4Q revenue outlook,” the analyst wrote. “We estimate AMZN’s share of US e-commerce increased ~240bps Q/Q (Prime Day likely helped) as AMZN’s Online Stores grew +13% FXN Y/Y in 3Q & AMZN’s Seller Services (3P) grew +23% FXN Y/Y in 3Q.”
However, the analyst noted that Amazon cited softening demand trends later in the third quarter, and macro pressures could weigh on consumer discretionary spending into the fourth quarter.
Still, JPMorgan sees Amazon’s high inventory levels being an advantage during the holiday season, adding that the company “also has the benefit of 3P sellers.”
“Longer-term, we continue to believe US e-comm penetration can reach 40%+ of US adj retail sales as AMZN & other retailers gain share in key under-penetrated categories such as grocery, CPG, apparel & accessories, & furniture/appliances/equipment,” Anmuth added.
By Sam Boughedda
