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Now that the S&P 500 has hit a new closing low for 2022, it is a good time to rerun a screen of low-volatility dividend stocks that may perform relatively better.
An initial screen of the S&P 500
SPX,
from June 29, resulted in a list of 19 stocks that met quality criteria set by Lewis Altfest, CEO of Altfest Personal Wealth Management, which is based in New York and manages about $1.5 billion for private clients.
Altfest’s screen was designed to help investors identify potential stocks for long-term investments — that is, for commitments of several years, at least — with some implied downside protection. Any stock screen is only a first step for your own consideration of companies’ less tangible quality factors.
Here’s a year-to-date price chart to illustrate the broad market’s action before and after we did the first screen:
FactSet
From the previous closing low on June 16, the S&P 500 rose 17% through Aug. 16. Then it took a 15% flop through Sept. 26, hitting its lowest closing level since Dec. 14, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Read: The Dow just joined the S&P 500 in a bear market: What investors need to know
First, we’ll lay out the criteria, with results from a new screen as of the close on Sept. 26. Then we’ll summarize changes to the list and show how the June 29 list has performed, even though the intention of the first screen wasn’t to “pick winners” for a period of less than three months.
New dividend-stock screen
Here are the screening criteria, with the number of companies meeting each among the S&P 500:
- Beta for the past 12 months of 1.00 or less, when compared with the price movement of the entire index: 298 companies. For this screen, a beta of less than 1 indicates a stock’s price has been less volatile than the S&P 500 over the past year.
- Dividend yield of at least 3.50%: 78 companies.
- Expected earnings per share for 2024 increasing at least 4% from 2023, based on estimates among analysts polled by FactSet: 50 companies.
- Expected sales for 2024 increasing at least 4% from 2023: 22 companies. We are using calendar-year estimates for earnings and sales; many companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar.
Here are the 22 companies identified by the new screen, sorted by dividend yield:
| Company | Ticker | Dividend yield | Expected increase in EPS – 2024 | Expected increase in sales – 2024 | 12-month beta | On June 29 list? |
| V.F. Corp. |
VFC, |
5.71% | 9% | 6% | 0.98 | Yes |
| Philip Morris International Inc. |
PM, |
5.63% | 9% | 9% | 0.54 | Yes |
| Intel Corp. |
INTC, |
5.41% | 8% | 5% | 0.86 | No |
| International Business Machines Corp. |
IBM, |
5.41% | 5% | 4% | 0.51 | Yes |
| Boston Properties Inc. |
BXP, |
5.26% | 9% | 6% | 0.87 | No |
| Healthpeak Properties Inc. |
PEAK, |
5.12% | 16% | 8% | 0.78 | No |
| Realty Inc.ome Corp. |
O, |
4.89% | 4% | 9% | 0.54 | Yes |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp. |
PNW, |
4.88% | 7% | 4% | 0.62 | Yes |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. |
DLR, |
4.79% | 22% | 7% | 0.90 | Yes |
| Omnicom Group Inc. |
OMC, |
4.52% | 8% | 4% | 0.73 | No |
| Edison International |
EIX, |
4.43% | 7% | 4% | 0.82 | No |
| Ventas Inc. |
VTR, |
4.34% | 31% | 7% | 0.57 | Yes |
| Stanley Black & Decker Inc. |
SWK, |
4.06% | 27% | 5% | 0.92 | No |
| Hasbro Inc. |
HAS, |
3.94% | 17% | 7% | 0.73 | No |
| Morgan Stanley |
MS, |
3.89% | 13% | 4% | 0.94 | Yes |
| Darden Restaurants Inc. |
DRI, |
3.81% | 13% | 6% | 0.91 | Yes |
| Cisco Systems Inc. |
CSCO, |
3.75% | 6% | 4% | 0.77 | No |
| Southern Co. |
SO, |
3.72% | 9% | 4% | 0.55 | Yes |
| UDR Inc. |
UDR, |
3.72% | 28% | 7% | 0.85 | No |
| Welltower Inc. |
WELL, |
3.71% | 39% | 12% | 0.60 | No |
| Essex Property Trust Inc. |
ESS, |
3.65% | 12% | 4% | 0.74 | No |
| Corning Inc. |
GLW, |
3.61% | 10% | 6% | 0.93 | No |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
Click on the tickers to begin your own research about any of the companies.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
Checking in with the June 29 group
Among the 22 companies that passed the new screen, 10 had passed the June 29 screen. So here’s a new screen for the entire June 29 group, in its original order, with companies that no longer pass in bolded typeface. Screen elements that no longer pass are bolded:
| Company | Ticker | Dividend yield | Expected increase in EPS – 2024 | Expected increase in sales – 2024 | Beta | Price change since June 28 | 2022 Price change |
| Vornado Realty Trust |
VNO, |
9.09% | -44% | 5% | 0.93 | -21% | -44% |
| Oneok Inc. |
OKE, |
7.39% | 5% | 6% | 1.03 | -11% | -14% |
| Philip Morris International Inc. |
PM, |
5.63% | 9% | 9% | 0.54 | -12% | -5% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. |
WBA, |
5.87% | 8% | 3% | 0.78 | -20% | -37% |
| International Business Machines Corp. |
IBM, |
5.41% | 5% | 4% | 0.51 | -14% | -9% |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp. |
PNW, |
4.88% | 7% | 4% | 0.62 | -5% | -1% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust |
FRT, |
4.91% | 2% | 4% | 0.95 | -10% | -35% |
| V.F. Corp. |
VFC, |
5.71% | 9% | 6% | 0.98 | -24% | -52% |
| Realty Income Corp. |
O, |
4.89% | 4% | 9% | 0.54 | -12% | -15% |
| Truist Financial Corp. |
TFC, |
4.79% | 2% | 2% | 0.86 | -10% | -26% |
| Kimco Realty Corp. |
KIM, |
4.88% | 13% | 4% | 1.02 | -11% | -27% |
| U.S. Bancorp |
USB, |
4.68% | 10% | 2% | 0.95 | -12% | -27% |
| Darden Restaurants Inc. |
DRI, |
3.81% | 13% | 6% | 0.91 | 5% | -20% |
| Southern Co. |
SO, |
3.72% | 9% | 4% | 0.55 | 4% | 7% |
| Principal Financial Group Inc. |
PFG, |
3.59% | 9% | 6% | 1.01 | 5% | -1% |
| Cardinal Health Inc. |
CAH, |
3.01% | 17% | 5% | 0.71 | 22% | 28% |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. |
DLR, |
4.79% | 22% | 7% | 0.90 | -24% | -42% |
| Morgan Stanley |
MS, |
3.89% | 13% | 4% | 0.94 | 2% | -19% |
| Ventas Inc. |
VTR, |
4.34% | 31% | 7% | 0.57 | -19% | -19% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
