: Bank stocks tumble after data shows inflation roaring back in August, sending bond yields higher

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-3.94%
gave up 2.6% and the S&P 500
SPX,
-4.32%
weakened by 3%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF
XLF,
-3.72%
dropped 2.8% and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index
BKX,
-3.93%
dropped by 3%.

Also Read: Dow down over 800 points as hot August consumer price index sends stocks skidding

While higher interest rates typically benefit banks’ net interest income by allowing them to charge more for loans, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index also caused more uncertainty among banks that hold large bond portfolios, as prices of bonds fell.

Also Read: 2-year Treasury yield surges to highest level in 14 years on August inflation surprise

Weaker bond prices cause banks to book unrealized losses on the value of their bond portfolios and in turn cause bank capital ratios  to decline. Treasury prices move in the opposite direction to yields.

While higher lending rates have been boosting bank’s net interest income, bank stocks have been weak in 2022 partly because of worries that inflation will continue to cool the economy and reduce economic activity, which in turn impacts activity in the financial sector.

“Rising interest rates, longer asset maturities, and high levels of securities on bank balance sheets may present challenges for the banking industry in coming quarters,” acting FDIC chief Martin J. Gruenberg said last week in the government’s quarterly bank profit summary. 

Suzanne Ross, director of product, mortgage, at Ocrolus, a financial technology document processor, said it feels nearly as bad as the Global Financial Crisis to some lenders. The financial sector is actually more sound today than in 2008, with more regulations and higher capital requirements in place, she said.

But the mortgage lending business remains under pressure to potentially lay off more people.

“It’s not fun right now to be in the rate hike environment that’s out there,” Ross said. “And they’re faced with tough decisions.”

Some lenders may not make it through the current environment, as they face a decrease in profit and increased cost.

Currently for mortgage providers, home prices are high while supply is low, with financial firms trying to figure out the new normal.

“It may feel like a financial crisis [but] I don’t think that it is,” Ross said.

In another complication in the banking sector, total deposits in the second quarter declined for the first time since the second quarter of 2018. The decline totaled $390 billion, a record, to $19.563 trillion in the second quarter ended June 30, down from $19.932 trillion in March.

While banks still have more deposits than they want, the Wall Street Journal reported that outflows in deposits will likely spark questions over the impact on the banking system from the Fed’s attempts to tame inflation.

The overall uncertainty in the economy will do little to stop a nascent effort by banks and other lenders to trim staff.

The job impact was initially felt by mortgage lenders as higher interest rates discouraged home buying earlier this year.

Now with initial public offerings and other capital market deals on hold, investment banking is also expected to generate job losses.

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is moving to trim hundreds of investment bankers and other staff by reintroducing its traditional annual performance reviews, according to a source familiar with the banks.

Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are all shedding jobs as well in their mortgage businesses and other units. That’s a reversal from the second quarter, when head count numbers climbed.

Also Read: 20 bank stocks expected to benefit the most from rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve fights inflation