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These concerns have led to a rout in U.S. equities in recent months, and prompted banks to roll out bearish forecasts. [.N]
Here are some estimates from major banks on the possibility of a recession in the United States:
Old
Bank Commentary on New year-end PT
recession price target
for S&P 500
Goldman Estimate a 35% 4,300 4,900
Sachs chance of a
recession in
U.S. in next two
years
Barclays (LON:BARC) Plc Risks to S&P 500 4,500* 4,800
“remain firmly
stacked to the
downside” given
numerous
negative
near-term
catalysts
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Expects mild 4,200-4,400 4,500-4,700
U.S. recession
at the end of
2022, early
2023; also cuts
year-end 2022
GDP growth
target to 1.5%
from 2.2%.
Morgan Says there is a 3,400*
Stanley 25% probability
for a recession
in next 12
months
Bank of Sees recession 4,500 4,600
America Corp risks as “low
for now but
elevated for
2023″
Credit Believes there As low as
Suisse is a high 3,350 in
recession risk bear-market
for U.S. in the scenario
second half of
2023 and for
Europe this year
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Says equity 4,900* 5,050
Chase & Co markets pricing
in too much
recession risk;
Advocates
risk-taking in
U.S. and Euro
area equity
markets
HSBC Expects a severe 4,450 4,900
Holdings PLC slowdown in
global growth
momentum
in Q2 and Q3
Deutsche Sees no 4,750 5,250
Bank AG recession
imminently, but
warns a
prolonged market
sell-off risks
sliding into a
self-fulfilling
recession
Source: Research notes from banks, *media reports
