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Oil futures declined Tuesday to their lowest settlement in more than week, after the International Energy Agency said the omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 would slow a recovery in demand for crude.
The combination of the “hawkish, risk-off reaction by markets to the ‘hot’ [producer price index] print,” a bearish International Energy Agency report suggesting the global oil market is already flipping to a surplus, and an increased number of governments and major corporations implementing stricter COVID-19 policies all weighed on the energy markets, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.
The U.S. government reported Tuesday that the producer price index climbed by a more-than-expected 0.8% last month.
Also Tuesday, the Paris-based IEA, in its monthly report, cut its 2022 supply forecast from non-OPEC producers by 100,000 barrels a day and reduced its demand forecast by the same amount, saying it expects the surge in coronavirus cases to stymie the recovery in global demand.
Read: IEA cuts 2022 oil demand outlook citing omicron hit on global growth
“The case for oversupply in the next quarter continues to build strength,” said Robbie Fraser, global research & analytics manager at Schneider Electric, in a daily note. “The IEA announced oversupply conditions were already being recorded in the current market, mainly as a result of the omicron variant helping to reduce international travel.”
“While most markets have largely recovered from the initially steep losses that followed omicron’s discovery, air travel remains especially sensitive, and new COVID-19 variants remain a key risk heading into the new year,” said Fraser.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery
CL.1,
CLF22,
fell 56 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $70.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping an intraday low of $69.51. February Brent crude
BRN00,
BRNG22,
the global benchmark, lost 69 cents, or 0.9%, to $73.70 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
Both WTI and Brent crude contracts marked their lowest front-month contract settlements since Dec. 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“If risk appetite is given a boost by central banks this week we could see [oil] push on higher but ultimately, the omicron data is going to be key,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at Oanda, in a note. “Politicians are clearly concerned and the rate of transmission is worrying. Further restrictions could weigh but traders will be all too aware that any drop in the price on this could trigger a sudden adjustment from OPEC+.”
Central banks are also in focus, with the Federal Reserve expected to move Wednesday to more quickly wind-down its monthly bond purchases, setting the stage for interest rate increases by next spring.
See: 5 things to watch for when the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision Wednesday
“If the Fed is more hawkish than feared coming out of this week’s policy meeting or omicron news gets worse, then oil prices could easily breakdown to retest the recent multi-month lows,” said Sevens Report Research’s Richey. “But if COVID fears begin to ease and the Fed presents a dovish acceleration to tapering QE, and reiterates rate hikes wont begin until later in 2022, then the resulting risk on money flows could drive WTI prices back towards our initial upside target of $75” a barrel.
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration will report weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies Wednesday. On average, analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the government data to show that domestic crude inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 10. They also forecast an increase of 200,000 barrels for gasoline, but distillate stockpiles are expected to fall by 400,000 barrels.
Back on Nymex, January gasoline
RBF22,
declined by 0.3% to $2.111 a gallon, while January heating oil
HOF22,
fell 0.6% to $2.218 a gallon.
Natural gas for January delivery
NGF22,
settled at $3.747 per million British thermal units, down 1.2%.
