Because any effect from the delta variant will take time to emerge in traditional monthly indicators, economists and policy makers are closely watching a mix of anecdotal and high-frequency data for any signs of impact.
Some events, like the New York International Auto Show, are being canceled due to virus concerns. Companies including Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc.’s Google, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN). and BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK). have all recently pushed back plans to return to the office as well.
But trying to decipher the impact of delta from a plethora of other cross currents in the economy in high frequency data is challenging.
Total spending using Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC). debit and credit cards “decelerated meaningfully” last week, economists Michelle Meyer and Anna Zhou wrote in a note Thursday.
While the moderation is likely partly noise — reflecting the timing of the pay period and the mid-July boost from Child Tax Credit payments — the pullback in spending on air travel and entertainment could be a result of the variant, the BofA economists wrote.
Looking at the U.S. as a whole, the improvement in OpenTable restaurant bookings has largely stalled in recent months, holding below its 2019 levels. But reservations in virus hot-spot states like Florida and Texas remain above levels seen during a comparable time frame in 2019.
Meanwhile, a back-to-work gauge from Kastle Systems, a company that tracks electronic access to office buildings, showed a slight pullback last week from its pandemic peak a week earlier. But it’s unclear whether that’s weekly volatility or the start of a broader trend.
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