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Crude-oil prices on Monday tumbled to start the week, after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, reached a deal to boost oil production amid climbing demand.
“The commodity rally isn’t over just yet, but it will probably take a big break here.,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a market update. “WTI crude’s fundamentals still support another massive move higher, it will just take another month or so to shake off the growing risk aversion theme.”
West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery
CL00,
CLQ21,
dropped $4.51, or 6.3%, to $67.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark last week ended down 3.7%, the biggest weekly fall for a front-month contract since the week ended March 26, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
September Brent crude
BRN00,
BRNU21,
the global benchmark, tumbled $4.20, or 5.7%,to $69.39 a barrel. The contract saw its biggest weekly slide since May last week, dropping 2.6%.
Front-month WTI and Brent crude were on track to suffer the largest single-session percentage declines since March, and lowest settlements since early June, FactSet data show.
The oil cartel and its allies announced Sunday that production levels will be boosted by 400,000 barrels a day each month starting in August, and eventually unravel curbs put in place last year in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. An agreement had been held up by a weekslong standoff between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over how much the latter would be allowed to pump.
One sticking point from the U.A.E. was its insistence that the baseline used to determine its output level be raised. OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to lift baselines for the U.A.E. and several other countries in May 2022.
“The agreement, which was reached during an OPEC+ videoconference at the weekend, is actually better for the oil market than the unclear situation of the past two weeks because it restores customer confidence,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, in a note to clients.
A gradual monthly increase of 400,000 barrels a day will leave production at 2 million barrels a day by the end of the year, though investors must also consider the higher baselines given to the U.A.E., Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Russia, he said. “In total, the basis is to be raised by over 1.6 million barrels per day, meaning that more OPEC+ crude oil will be available in the longer term,” said Weinberg.
“This could weigh on oil prices next year as it is unclear whether the market will need this additional oil,” he added, but expects disciplined compliance with the plan will keep prices stable in the next few months.
Goldman Sachs strategists said they don’t think the OPEC+ deal is bearish for prices, “with supply increasingly becoming the source of the bullish impulse and evidence of non-OPEC supply shortfalls likely in the coming months (including shale discipline in the coming earnings season).”
A team led by Damien Courvalin said oil prices will likely gyrate in coming weeks amid concerns over the delta variant of COVID-19 and “the slower velocity of supply developments relative to recent mobility gains.” Concerns over rising cases due to the delta variant were weighing on stock markets to start the week.
“With most of our expected summer demand gains already achieved and with headwinds growing from the delta COVID variant, we believe that the catalyst for the next leg higher in prices is shifting from the demand to the supply side, with upside risks to our price forecasts in the coming months as a result,” said the Goldman strategists.
“On the surface, the news seems bearish for oil, because after all they did agree to boost production,” said Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment Research at BDSwiss. “However, it’s really bullish because the market was beginning to price in the possibility that the agreement would fall apart completely and there would be a production free-for-all.”
“The extension of the agreement means that supply will continue to increase only gradually,” he said in a market update Monday. “The news is therefore bullish for oil.”
“If the global economy keeps recovering, the market will remain relatively tight for some time,” said Gittler. Still, there is some uncertainty surrounding a continued recovery in the global economy, he said, noting the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in parts of Asia, as well as the U.S.
The energy sector overall was largely under pressure, with August gasoline
RBQ21,
down 5.2% to $2.14 a gallon and August heating oil
HOQ21,
down 4.8% to $2.01 a gallon.
Bucking the trend, August natural gas
NGQ21,
rose 1.9% to nearly $3.75 per million British thermal units.
