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The Delta variant of Covid-19 has become dominant in the U.K. and cases are surging even as more than 80% of adults have been vaccinated.
The country recorded more than 11,000 daily new cases on Thursday for the first time since February and reached the milestone of giving four-fifths of adults at least one dose on the same day. On Friday the U.K. recorded 10,476 new cases.
New data released by Public Health England (PHE) on Friday revealed 33,630 new cases of the Delta variant in the week to June 8, up 79% from the previous week.
The variant, first identified in India, is also becoming more prevalent in the U.S., where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reclassified it as a variant “of concern” earlier this week.
The delta variant now accounts for 10% of new cases in U.S., the CDC said on Tuesday. Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, said earlier this month that the variant seems to be more transmissible than the Alpha variant and may carry a higher risk of getting sicker and ending up in the hospital if someone gets infected.
So what’s behind the U.K.’s rise in cases? and could it happen in the U.S.?
A U.K. government-commissioned study published on Thursday found that younger people, less likely to be vaccinated, were behind the rise. The Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI study found that the highest prevalence of Covid between April 15 and May 3 was in the 5-12 and 18-24 age groups. The study of 109,000 tests suggested cases were doubling every 11 days over the period.
PHE data released on Friday showed that 99% of cases in the U.K., sequenced and genotyped to identify variants, are now the Delta variant — compared to around 10% in the U.S.
The data also suggested that two doses of a vaccine gives good protection against the variant, a conclusion backed up by two separate PHE studies earlier this week.
As of June 14, a total of 806 people have been hospitalized with the variant, an increase of 423 on the previous week. PHE said 527 of those were unvaccinated, with only 84 of the 806 having been fully vaccinated.
The weekly variant data lags behind daily cases data as scientists have to process and analyze positive test samples to identify the various variants.
Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the U.K.’s Health Security Agency, said the latest variant data showed cases were rising rapidly and that the Delta variant was “now dominant.”
However, she said there was encouraging news around hospitalizations and deaths, adding that the vaccination program was saving lives.
“The increase [in cases] is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of which were unvaccinated but are now being invited to receive the vaccine. It is encouraging to see that hospitalizations are not rising at the same rate but we will continue to monitor it closely.”
Could a similar spike happen in the U.S.?
The U.K. government hopes a four-week delay to the planned June 21 lockdown easing can be used to make sure all adults are vaccinated by July 19, opening jabs up to 18-year-olds on Friday. It will also ensure more adults are fully vaccinated, which the PHE data suggests could be crucial. On that front, 30.6 million people in the U.K. have received two vaccine doses, around 58% of adults or 46% of the entire population.
In comparison, 45% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated, according to the Johns Hopkins University.
The U.K government has bought itself some time to speed up the vaccination rollout, shortening the gap between doses and pressing ahead with all over-18s. The data would suggest that the U.S. has more time before the Delta variant becomes as dominant as it is in the U.K., if it ever does. By which point a significant proportion of Americans may be fully vaccinated.
Another difference between the U.K. and the U.S. is the gap recommended between COVID-19 doses. Brits have typically been received their second dose 8-9 weeks after their first. In contrast, the CDC recommends a three-week gap between two doses of the Pfizer
PFE,
and BioNTech
BNTX,
vaccine and a 1 month interval between Moderna
MRNA,
doses, while Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine requires only one dose. That means Americans will be given their second dose, which the data suggests gives further protection against the Delta variant, more quickly.
When it comes to how serious this current surge will be, it seems to be a race between the spread of the Delta variant and the U.K.’s vaccination rollout. As it stands the U.S. has more time and perhaps a better chance of winning its own potential race against the Delta variant.
